Merced Housing Report - thebubblebuster.com

SUMMARY HISTORY PEAKS & TROUGHS FORECASTS

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The Merced housing market has seen a continued decline from the remarkable price increases of years past. The continued sharp declines in sales activity has increased the number of homes on the market and is finally forcing sellers to lower their expectations. Further sales and pricing declines should be expected, particularly if mortgage rates move higher due to poor affordability.

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Nominal Price Activity		Merced	National	Comment
.	Quarterly Appreciation (Q3:2006 – Q4:2006)	-1.6%	-2.7%	Poor
	Rolling Year Appreciation (Q4:2005 – Q4:2006)	1.6%	1.7%	Weak
	Last Year Appreciation (2005)	31.5%	13.4%	Strong
	Rolling 5 Year App. (Q4:2001 – Q4:2006)	115.2%	49.4%	Strong
	Historical Average Annual Appreciation	6.9%	6.0%	Good
Real Price Activity		Merced	National	Comment
.	Quarterly Appreciation (Q3:2006 – Q4:2006)	-1.9%	-3.0%	Poor
	Rolling Year Appreciation (Q4:2005 – Q4:2006)	-1.4%	-1.2%	Weak
	Last Year Appreciation (2005)	28.0%	10.3%	Strong
	Rolling 5 Year App. (Q4:2001 – Q4:2006)	90.2%	31.8%	Strong
	Historical Average Annual Appreciation	3.0%	1.7%	Good
Affordability Activity		Merced	National	Comment
	Mortgage-Debt-to-Income Ratio* (Q4:2006)	37.8%	21.7%	Unfavorable
	Historical Mortgage-Debt-to-Income Ratio*	25.7%	20.7%	Slightly High
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*	This ratio compares the monthly mortgage payment (principal & interest only, which does not include hazard insurance, property taxes or any needed private mortgage insurance) for a median priced home financed at the prevailing 30 year mortgage rate to the local median 4-person family income.
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	Merced historical data is for the time period of Q2:1979 – Q4:2006
	National historical data is for the time period of Q1:1975 – Q4:2006

MERCED, CALIFORNIA - Q4:2006