thebubblebuster.com Blog

Austin median home prices fell slightly in the 4th quarter, but still finished the year with a 7.1% gain. Thanks in part to slowdown in the early 2000’s due to the dotcom bust, Austin has posted some of the best returns over the past few years within Texas. Additionally, thanks to continued job growth and very positive affordability ratios a worst case scenario still likely involves continued price growth. Will this growth come rapidly in 2007 or will it happen slowly throughout the next decade?

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San Antonio median home prices fell in the 4th quarter erasing much of the nominal price gain of the prior 3 quarters. The resulting nominal gain was the smallest since 1997. However, thanks in part to falling prices affordability remains very positive and the city appears to have room for future price growth. The question is will this growth occur in 2007?

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Milwaukee median housing prices continued to fall in the 4th quarter. An inflation-adjusted price drop for 2006 equated to worst year in Milwaukee since 1984. The price drop has however improved affordability and ratios remain near national averages. Will 2007 bring back price gains or will the year incur further losses?

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Fairfield-Vallejo median housing prices continued to fall in the 4th quarter and the year finished as the worst since 1996. Despite the fall in prices affordability remains a concern and consequently for sale signs and foreclosures are everywhere. Will 2007 be another year of small price pullbacks or will the year bring bubble busting price drops?

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St. Louis median home prices pushed a bit higher in the 4th quarter and the year finished with average appreciation. Despite higher prices affordability ratios remain extremely positive and indicate room for further growth. Will St. Louis experience a renaissance which will power prices higher or will the city take a typical rust belt path and allow inflation to continue to eat away price gains?

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Indianapolis median housing prices fell sharply in the 4th quarter as inflation-adjusted prices fall back to levels last seen in 1998. Unlike however many coastal cities the price declines have nothing to do with high prices, but rather with poor local economics. Will the tremendously positive affordability ratio of Indianapolis lead to price growth in 2007 or will prices continue to move lower?

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Boise median housing prices continued to head higher in the 4th quarter and finished as the 2nd best year on record. However, the city has now shifted gears a bit and investors are no longer calling Boise a “sure thing”. Will the departure of strong investor activity leave the city with a glut of homes and lower prices or will Boise’s relatively positive affordability ratio push prices even higher?

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Atlanta median home prices fell in the 4th quarter essentially erasing the gains of the prior 3 quarters. For the year real prices experienced their first drop in 12 years and largest fall in 16 years. Thanks in part to falling prices Atlanta affordability remains some of the nation’s best. Will this positive affordability translate to higher prices in ‘07 or will the year bring continued price declines?

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Monterey median home prices continued to fall in the 4th quarter and the year finished with the largest price drops in both nominal and real terms since records began in ‘78. The record price increases of years’ past has lead to horrible affordability and increased inventories. Will the downward momentum continue in 2007 and lead to even larger losses or will the year bring price stagnation?

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Washington DC housing prices fell in the fourth quarter and 2006 real gains were the smallest since 1997. This price stagnation comes after years of record price increases and is in part due to poor national consumer sentiment. Will 2007 once again bring record gains or will the year more closely resemble the DC market fall of 1990?

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